Fed Interest Rate Predictions

Federal Reserve interest rate prediction markets. Trade on Fed policy decisions, rate cuts, and monetary policy outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket.

83 active markets
Updated 2/20/2026, 4:29:02 PM
•Query: 3073ms
Polymarket·fed

Fed decision in March?

94%
No change
24h:$4.9Mvol:$144.5Mwill-there-be-no-change-in-fed-interest-rates-after-the-march-2026-meeting
Polymarket·fed

Fed decision in April?

81%
No change
24h:$62Kvol:$2.2Mwill-there-be-no-change-in-fed-interest-rates-after-the-april-2026-meeting
Polymarket·fed

Fed Decision in June?

47%
25 bps decrease
24h:$19Kvol:$369Kwill-the-fed-decrease-interest-rates-by-25-bps-after-the-june-2026-meeting
Polymarket·fed

Predicted Fed rate under each Fed Chair

67%
Kevin Warsh & Rate > 2.5%
24h:$275vol:$83Kwill-kevin-warsh-be-confirmed-as-fed-chair-and-will-rates-stay-above-2pt5-in-2026-958
Polymarket·fed

Fed rate cut by...?

73%
June Meeting
24h:$6Kvol:$298Kfed-rate-cut-by-june-2026-meeting
Polymarket·fed

Fed decisions (Jan-Apr)

74%
Pause–Pause–Pause
24h:$1Kvol:$26Kwill-the-fed-pausepausepause-in-the-next-three-decisions-janmarapr
Polymarket·fed

Fed decisions (Mar-Jun)

37%
Pause–Pause–Cut
24h:$52vol:$12Kwill-the-fed-pausepausecut-in-the-next-three-decisions-maraprjun
Polymarket·fed

Fed decisions (Dec-Mar)

93%
Cut–Pause–Pause
24h:$19Kvol:$523Kwill-the-fed-cutpausepause-in-the-next-three-decisions-decjanmar
Polymarket·other economics

Bank of Japan Decision in March?

<1%
Decrease rates
24h:$23Kvol:$426Kbank-of-japan-decreases-interest-rates-after-march-2026-meeting
Polymarket·other economics

Bank of Brazil Decision in March?

96%
Decrease
24h:$344vol:$77Kwill-the-bank-of-brazil-decrease-the-selic-rate-after-march-2026-meeting
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