Recession Odds 2026

Will there be a recession in 2026? Prediction market odds on US economic downturn, GDP growth, and recession indicators.

442 active markets
Updated 3/1/2026, 11:26:58 AM
Query: 3886ms
Polymarket·ai

AI bubble burst by...?

20%
December 31, 2026
24h:$6Kvol:$1.8Mai-industry-downturn-by-december-31-2026-857
Polymarket·fed
24h:$5.7Mvol:$191.7Mwill-there-be-no-change-in-fed-interest-rates-after-the-march-2026-meeting
Polymarket·fed

Fed Decision in June?

50%
25 bps decrease
24h:$19Kvol:$665Kwill-the-fed-decrease-interest-rates-by-25-bps-after-the-june-2026-meeting
Kalshi·inflation

CPI in Feb 2026?

96%
Above 0.0%
24h:$7Kvol:$132KKXCPI-26FEB-T0.0
Polymarket·fed
24h:$253Kvol:$3.7Mwill-there-be-no-change-in-fed-interest-rates-after-the-april-2026-meeting
Polymarket·fed

Fed rate cut by...?

59%
June Meeting
24h:$10Kvol:$331Kfed-rate-cut-by-june-2026-meeting
Polymarket·gdp
24h:$3Kvol:$89Kwill-us-gdp-growth-in-q1-2026-be-greater-than-3pt5
Polymarket·international

Next UK Prime Minister in 2026?

37%
No Next PM in 2026
24h:$35Kvol:$1.4Mwill-no-next-prime-minister-of-the-united-kingdom-be-appointed-in-2026