Recession Odds 2026

Will there be a recession in 2026? Prediction market odds on US economic downturn, GDP growth, and recession indicators.

448 active markets
Updated 2/20/2026, 4:29:02 PM
Query: 3200ms
Polymarket·ai

AI bubble burst by...?

21%
December 31, 2026
24h:$2Kvol:$1.8Mai-industry-downturn-by-december-31-2026-857
Polymarket·fed
24h:$4.9Mvol:$144.5Mwill-there-be-no-change-in-fed-interest-rates-after-the-march-2026-meeting
Polymarket·fed

Fed Decision in June?

47%
25 bps decrease
24h:$19Kvol:$369Kwill-the-fed-decrease-interest-rates-by-25-bps-after-the-june-2026-meeting
Polymarket·fed
24h:$62Kvol:$2.2Mwill-there-be-no-change-in-fed-interest-rates-after-the-april-2026-meeting
Polymarket·fed

Fed rate cut by...?

73%
June Meeting
24h:$6Kvol:$298Kfed-rate-cut-by-june-2026-meeting
Polymarket·international

Next UK Prime Minister in 2026?

41%
No Next PM in 2026
24h:$38Kvol:$1.0Mwill-no-next-prime-minister-of-the-united-kingdom-be-appointed-in-2026
Kalshi·inflation

CPI in Feb 2026?

96%
Above 0.0%
24h:$17Kvol:$64KKXCPI-26FEB-T0.0